For the first time, Google’s decade-long dominance of digital advertising faces a concrete challenge — and eMarketer says the numbers tell the story.
Meta is on track to surpass Google in global digital advertising revenue by the end of 2026, according to a new forecast by eMarketer — a milestone that would mark the first time Google has been displaced from the top spot in over a decade.
eMarketer projects Meta will generate $243.46 billion in worldwide ad revenue in 2026, edging past Google’s $239.54 billion. As recently as 2025, Google led comfortably with $214.06 billion against Meta’s $196.17 billion.
Meta’s share of global digital ad spending is forecast to reach 26.8% in 2026, just ahead of Google’s 26.4% — a share that has been declining steadily since 2021. The gap reflects a significant difference in growth trajectories: Meta’s global ad revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 22.1% in 2025 to 24.1% in 2026, while Google’s is forecast to hold at 11.9%.
“In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, Principal Analyst at eMarketer. “Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media.”
The growth is broad-based rather than driven by a single product. Zach Goldner, Senior Forecasting Analyst at eMarketer, said Meta is unlocking value across its entire ecosystem simultaneously. Tools such as Advantage+ and AI-generated ad creatives are improving performance across Facebook and Instagram, while Reels has contributed to a meaningful increase in advertiser spending.
That momentum is reshaping how advertisers think about Meta’s platforms. “For the vast majority of advertisers, the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps — the question is how much they should spend,” Willens said.
Google, meanwhile, may face structural constraints on ad growth. Willens noted that the breadth of Google’s business — which spans ad-free subscription services such as YouTube Premium alongside its core advertising operation — could limit how quickly it can accelerate revenue.
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The eMarketer forecast does not account for potential disruption from recent court rulings involving Meta and Google. Goldner said those cases will take years to fully play out, and that advertisers tend to prioritize performance over legal risk when allocating budgets.
Amazon remains the third-largest digital advertising company and is growing fast. The company is projected to rise from $68.64 billion in ad revenue in 2025 to $82.07 billion in 2026 and $97.07 billion in 2027, capturing a 9.0% share of global digital ad spending next year. Together, Meta, Google, and Amazon are expected to account for 62.3% of the global digital ad market in 2026.