Cyber Monday will remain the season’s biggest shopping day at $15.1 billion, but Black Friday is growing faster, Adobe says. Shoppers are also stocking up on essentials.
U.S. shoppers are expected to spend $275.1 billion online this holiday season, up 6.7% from a year earlier, according to a forecast released Monday by Adobe.
The forecast covers Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026. Adobe said it is based on Adobe Analytics data, including more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
Cyber Monday will remain the season’s biggest online shopping day, Adobe said, but Black Friday is growing faster. Shoppers are also expected to use discounts to stock up on household essentials, and to lean on AI tools, social media influencers and Buy Now Pay Later financing.
The biggest days
Adobe expects consumers to spend $15.1 billion online on Cyber Monday (Nov. 30), up 6.2% from last year. It would be the first time U.S. shoppers spend more than $15 billion online in a single day, Adobe said.
Black Friday is expected to be the second-biggest day at $12.9 billion, up 9.2%. Adobe attributed the faster growth partly to the deepest discounts on items such as TVs, apparel and appliances. Thanksgiving is forecast to bring in $6.9 billion, up 8.5%.
Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to generate $47.5 billion online, up 7.4%. That is 17.3% of the season’s spending.
Mobile devices are expected to account for a record 63% of online spending, up from 61.6% in 2025. That is higher than the 57.4% share for the full season, which is up from 56.4% last year. Adobe said impulse shopping is helping drive mobile sales.
Where the money goes
Electronics and apparel remain the biggest online categories. Adobe forecasts:
- Electronics: $63.3 billion, up 5.9%
- Apparel: $51.3 billion, up 4.7%
- Furniture: $33.4 billion, up 7.3%
- Grocery: $26.1 billion, up 10.3%
- Toys: $9.6 billion, up 9.6%
- Cosmetics: $9.2 billion, up 9.5%
October’s early boost
Adobe said October sales events, including Prime Day, have become industrywide and are pulling spending ahead of the holidays. The company expects $95.8 billion in online spending in October, up 8%.
Prime Day, on Oct. 6-7, is expected to bring in $9.9 billion, up 9.2%, with discounts peaking at 19% off listed price. Adobe said the trend is pushing retailers to manage promotions and inventory for an extra spike before the season begins.
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Discounts on par with last year
Adobe expects discounts of up to 30% off listed price during Cyber Week. Deals should reach up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and 10% to 15% through December.
Discounts by category are expected to be similar to 2025. Peak discounts for 2026, with last year’s figures in parentheses:
- Electronics: 30% (30.1%)
- Toys: 29% (28%)
- TVs: 23% (24.2%)
- Computers: 23% (22.8%)
- Apparel: 23% (23.2%)
- Sporting goods: 19% (19.5%)
- Appliances: 18% (19.2%)
- Furniture: 18% (19%)
The deepest discounts on electronics and computers should come on Cyber Monday, Adobe said. The best deals on TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture are expected on Black Friday, and on sporting goods on Thanksgiving.
Stocking up on essentials
Many shoppers are using the discounts to buy necessities, Adobe said. During Cyber Week, online sales of personal hygiene products are expected to jump 150% compared with average September 2026 sales levels, and clothing basics 210%. Baby products are forecast to rise 113%, pet products 93% and household cleaning items 49%.
Buy Now Pay Later
Buy Now Pay Later is expected to drive $21.3 billion in spending in November and December, up 6.6%. Usage should peak on Cyber Monday at $1.09 billion, the second straight year it has topped $1 billion on that day, Adobe said. On Black Friday, it is expected to account for $807 million.
About 82% of Buy Now Pay Later spending is expected to come through mobile devices.
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AI, social media and hot sellers
Adobe first saw more shoppers using AI-powered chat and browser services for online shopping in the 2024 holiday season. It expects traffic to U.S. retail sites from AI services, measured by clicks on links, to rise 130% this season. The biggest increase is forecast for Thanksgiving, up 159%, followed by Black Friday, up 95%, and Cyber Monday, up 88%.
In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of those who have used AI for online shopping said they felt more confident in their purchase, and 69% said they were less likely to return an item.
Affiliates and partners, a group that includes social influencers, and social media overall are expected to see the biggest gains in share of revenue, up 12% and 17%, respectively. Paid search is expected to rise 4%. Among affiliates and partners, cashback and rewards partners lead traffic with a 36% share, followed by influencers and creators at 22%.
Adobe expects top-selling gaming consoles to include the Nintendo Switch 2, Sony PlayStation 5 and PlayStation 5 Pro and Xbox Series X. Popular toys are forecast to include Beyblade X, Jellycat plush toys, LEGO Pokémon sets and Tickle Me Elmo Giggle Max. Other expected best-sellers include AirPods Pro 3, Dyson Airwrap, Google Pixel 11, iPhone 18 Pro, Oura Ring 5 and Meta AI glasses.
