Holiday shopping is now a months-long marathon of discovery. Brands that show up early, fuel exploration, and stay consistent—not just cheaper—win the 2025 season.
As the holiday shopping season approaches, marketers are finalizing their plans, but the largest gains this year will not stem solely from discounts. The promotional period has evolved into a protracted marathon of discovery, comparison, and intent stretching from late September into the new year.
This period remains the most significant in the U.S. retail calendar, marked by extraordinary traffic and spending surges. Data from the previous year underscores this intensity: Thanksgiving 2024 saw orders increase 56.8% above the October average, Black Friday orders surged 172%, and Cyber Monday’s growth exceeded 200%.
In financial terms, Americans spent more than $994 billion during the last season, with $241 billion from online sales. For 2025, despite heightened consumer uncertainty, the National Retail Federation projects total spending will surpass $1 trillion.
Success this year hinges not just on price, but on a brand’s ability to respond to a consumer base that is more deliberate, data-driven, and open to trying new options. Every day counts, and strategic presence now can dictate annual results.
From Bargain Hunting to Exploration
During the promotional season, shoppers are primarily in exploration mode, actively searching for new products, brands, and categories. Fashion advertisers, for example, typically see up to a 70% increase in unique visitors during this window.
These are not merely bargain hunters; they are high-intent audiences with curiosity. The key takeaway for brands is to build campaigns that fuel exploration rather than focusing solely on price drops. Data shows that 61% of products bought were not viewed beforehand, suggesting discovery is happening directly within the ad experience when creative is personalized and relevant.
The Race Starts Early
Visibility becomes expensive and harder to secure as inventory prices begin to rise weeks before Thanksgiving. Waiting until the week of Black Friday forces brands to pay more for less reach.
Winning brands adopt a “Grow Ahead of the Market” strategy, extending their promotional windows and building consistent awareness as early as September. This approach, which prioritizes early exposure over a last-minute blitz, often delivers up to twice the performance compared to scaling too late. Early campaign launches efficiently populate retargeting pools, which translates directly into stronger conversion efficiency when customer intent peaks.
Navigating the Complex Path to Purchase
The modern path to purchase is rarely linear. For nearly half of all shoppers, the journey involves multiple touchpoints—a user might see an ad, browse, add to cart, leave, and be retargeted five or six times before completing a purchase. This pattern is most pronounced in high-consideration categories like luxury fashion, electronics, and home goods.
Consistency is paramount: consistent presence, creative, and messaging across the full journey ensure the audience does not complete their path with a competitor. Marketers are increasingly leveraging Deep Learning-based advertising, which excels at servicing these longer paths by tailoring ads based on individual behavioral patterns rather than simple recency, maintaining brand awareness until the moment of conversion.
Activating New and Returning Shoppers
Intent surges across all audience segments, but activation requires segmentation. Returning customers are 17% more likely to purchase during this period, making it an opportune moment to reward loyalty with early access or personalized recommendations. Conversely, new visitors require assurance and discovery cues, needing to understand why a brand is worth their attention. Brands that balance both—running distinct campaigns for new customer acquisition and repeat conversion—achieve stronger overall lift.
Don’t Let Carts Go Cold
A significant conversion opportunity lies in cart re-engagement. Many shoppers begin building carts as early as mid-October but pause before finalizing the sale. In the fashion category, conversion rates can drop from 25% to 19% as the season progresses, indicating customers are waiting for the optimal offer.
Persistent, well-timed retargeting remains critical for recovering these high-value conversions. It is often worthwhile to maintain re-engagement efforts with shoppable creative or countdowns well into late December, long after peak weeks have passed, as many undecided users are still considering purchase.
The mindset shift is clear: the holiday promotional season is equally a discovery event as it is a discount one. Success belongs to brands that understand this fundamental shift in consumer behavior and remain strategically relevant from the first impression to the final click.
